At Thursday\u2019s Juneau Chamber of Commerce Luncheon, Brian Holst took two polls.<\/p>\n
They said quite a bit about what the capital city is expecting from the next year.<\/p>\n
Holst, the director of the Juneau Economic Development Council, opened a presentation to Chamber members by asking their thoughts about what Juneau\u2019s economy will look like one year from now. Seventeen percent thought it would be better, 48 percent thought it would be the same, and 36 percent said it would be worse.<\/p>\n
Holst gave his presentation and held the poll again.<\/p>\n
The second time, 48 percent of the Chamber thought Juneau\u2019s economy will be worse next year than it is right now.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis year, we have some challenges,\u201d Holst had said during his presentation.<\/p>\n
Of the almost 18,000 jobs counted in Juneau during 2015, almost 7,000 are government positions \u2014 state, local and federal.<\/p>\n
\u201cState government is 20 percent of Juneau employment, 27 percent of Juneau earnings,\u201d Holst said. \u201cGovernment is a really important sector in Juneau, but what\u2019s happening to government?\u201d<\/p>\n
He proceeded to pull up a PowerPoint slide entitled \u201cGovernment Jobs Are Disappearing.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the past two years, Holst said, Juneau has lost 387 state jobs as a result of budget cuts. Those are among nearly 2,000 jobs lost statewide.<\/p>\n
If you look at Juneau\u2019s employment figures, you won\u2019t see those losses. The 17,930 jobs counted in 2015 are just 50 fewer than the number counted in 2014.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s because Juneau\u2019s tourism sector is booming, adding jobs at a pace seen by few other industries.<\/p>\n
That creates a somewhat hidden problem, Holst said. State jobs are high-paying, full-time work with good health care and retirement benefits. Tourism jobs are usually seasonal, part-time and don\u2019t come with benefits.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of good-paying jobs are going away,\u201d Holst said. \u201cWhere we see growth here is not exactly where we want it.\u201d<\/p>\n
There are some bright spots, however. Juneau\u2019s unemployment rate remains low, and the city still imports nonresident workers to meet demand in some industries \u2014 particularly seasonal ones.<\/p>\n
Demographically, Holst said, Juneau is experiencing \u201ca really interesting phenomenon\u201d with large numbers of retirees remaining in town even as the city sees a surge in the number of younger residents.<\/p>\n
\u201cJuneau\u2019s cool again,\u201d Holst said. \u201cWe\u2019ve got 25-35-year-olds staying in Juneau in a disproportionate number.\u201d<\/p>\n
The key factor to Juneau\u2019s fiscal health, however, is the state budget. Unless the Alaska Legislature comes up with a plan to resolve the state\u2019s $4 billion annual deficit and steep future job cuts, the city will keep bleeding.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they choose not to deal with this fiscal crisis, it could really hurt,\u201d Holst said.<\/p>\n
Bruce Abel, sitting in the audience, said there\u2019s another solution to Juneau\u2019s problems: Building a road out.<\/p>\n
\u201cI look at the fact (the losses of the past two years) could be completely offset by building a road, yet we have a governor who\u2019s sitting on his hands, dithering,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
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