On the first day of school, Thunder Mountain High School vice principal Rhonda Hickok went around the school to count how many students were there.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think we were at 719 that were actually here, and that blew us away. I wasn\u2019t expecting that number,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
The projected enrollment for TMHS was 653. Into its second week of school, that first day figure has grown even higher to around 732. That\u2019s about 80 more students than the Mendenhall Valley high school was prepared for.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are bursting at the seams in the classroom,\u201d Hickok said. Some classes have 35 students. Last year, she said classroom numbers were between 28 and 32.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s just an anomaly year. It\u2019s really odd,\u201d she said. \u201cWe have not seen the dip in the student body that we thought we\u2019d see.\u201d<\/p>\n
Throughout the Juneau School District, many schools are seeing unexpected higher enrollment numbers and that often entails last minute adjustments. The total district enrollment was projected at 4,597, lower than last year\u2019s. As of Thursday, it was at 4,808 \u2014 a difference of more than 210 students.<\/p>\n
[Full classrooms, half-empty schools<\/a>]<\/p>\n \u201cIn general, we definitely benefit from having more students in our schools and we\u2019re happy that students are choosing public schools to attend. It helps with the budget because we do receive funding based on enrollment,\u201d the district\u2019s chief of staff Kristin Bartlett said.<\/p>\n \u201cBut when we get this information so close to the beginning of the school year, it does cause a little bit of scrambling to make sure that everyone is accommodated.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Why more students now?<\/strong><\/p>\n Student enrollment has been trending downward since 2005, according to an enrollment forecast report written last December by Gregg Erickson of Erickson & Associates.<\/p>\n \u201cUntil recently that was mostly the result of declining birth rates. Since 2012, however, the declines reflect a shrinking Juneau economy,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s enrollment was 4,724. The year before it was 4,792. For those years, head of the school district\u2019s finances David Means, with the aid of Erickson\u2019s report, had been pretty accurate with his enrollment projections.<\/p>\n \u201cIt was uncanny how right on he was. The last two years, we have hit our projections within five kids. It was almost like someone was psychic,\u201d superintendent Mark Miller said. \u201cTo come in with this many more students is surprising based on my experience with the past track record here in Juneau.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t know why we have more students than we expected,\u201d Means said. \u201cI don\u2019t have an explanation that I can really say. Anecdotally, but it\u2019s based on a very small sample size, perhaps the Coast Guard brought in more families this time around during the summer transition, but it\u2019s the only thing I know about.\u201d<\/p>\n Bartlett said it seems like a number of families has moved into the community.<\/p>\n \u201cSo that\u2019s good for our community and good for school enrollment. Also, sometimes it has to do with choice \u2014 families who may\u2019ve been homeschooling might be enrolling their students in the public school,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n As TMHS enrolls more and more students, Hickok said, \u201cwe\u2019ve had students come in from North Carolina, Idaho, Hoonah. They\u2019re coming from all over the place for various reasons. Their parents are all employed somewhere. It\u2019s really interesting.\u201d<\/p>\n Erickson said it\u2019s nice to get projections correct \u201cjust like we nailed it last year, but these are human decisions and human institutions \u2014 where you move to, where you enroll your children and there aren\u2019t any really good scientific ways of predicting exactly how that\u2019s going to unravel.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n What does it mean for the budget?<\/strong><\/p>\n Other schools that are seeing higher than projected enrollment include Auke Bay Elementary School, which is seeing about 50 students above projected enrollment, and Dzantik\u2019i Heeni Middle School, which is seeing about 35 students above projected enrollment.<\/p>\n \u201cAt Auke Bay, they\u2019re using every square inch of that school now. They\u2019re making it, but it is tight over there, there\u2019s no two ways about that. I think (other schools have) enough breathing room to make it work without it being a big deal,\u201d superintendent Miller said.<\/p>\n Schools that are seeing fewer students than what was projected include Floyd Dryden Middle School and Harborview Elementary School. Floyd Dryden was projected at 459 students but has around 443. Harborview\u2019s enrollment was expected to be 309 but is actually around 294. The differences are in the teens, which Means doesn\u2019t consider significant.<\/p>\n The overall increase though is likely to mean more money from the state for the district\u2019s budget, potentially up to $1.5 million more, Means said.<\/p>\n \u201cWith this amount of students, we\u2019re going to be able to overcome Gov. Walker\u2019s partial veto of school foundation funding. That was about $200,000. We will overcome that,\u201d he said. \u201cAlso, because we have additional students, we\u2019ve hired three additional teachers. Two are at Auke Bay and then the rest of them are in fractions here and there.\u201d<\/p>\n But that\u2019s based on the assumption that the district\u2019s estimate of having 74 intensive need students is correct.<\/p>\n \u201cEach student in that criteria is equivalent to about 13 students. If we had a few students less than (74), that could impact our financials quite a bit,\u201d Means said.<\/p>\n \u201cLiterally, if we end up with 10 less intensive need kids than we thought we have, all that money is gone. Every dollar that we got from more (Base Student Allocation) would be eaten up,\u201d Miller explained further.<\/p>\n He said a factor like that changes the bottom line very quickly.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a very fine line. There are a lot of subtleties about not only how many students but what type of students and what the needs of those students are that come into play before you can start breathing easy and moving forward,\u201d he said. \u201cWe really don\u2019t fully reconcile the budget and know for sure until about a quarter of the way through the school year, about October.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s when Alaska school districts turn in final numbers to the state. Means said he doesn\u2019t think enrollment will stay as high as it is now, but it will remain higher than projected.<\/p>\n \u201cWe will have 160 to 200 more students than what we thought we\u2019d have,\u201d Means said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n What are other impacts?<\/strong><\/p>\n Besides affecting the budget and classroom sizes, higher enrollment means a plethora of other adjustments that need to be made.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s an impact potentially to the bus service and how crowded the school buses are. In actual classrooms, there are basic things like the number of desks or the number of sinks available in a science lab, the number of coat hooks in elementary schools for kids to hang their coats on. These are all things that do factor into the changes that have to made at the last minute when we have more students than expected,\u201d the district\u2019s chief of staff Bartlett said.<\/p>\n TMHS vice principal Rhonda Hickok said while adjusting class schedules has been frustrating, she appreciates the positive attitude toward the changes.<\/p>\n \u201cOur kids and parents and staff are just phenomenal with their patience with this,\u201d she said. \u201cJust give us a little bit of time to figure out how we still continue to try to balance classes out. It\u2019s just a challenging year, but with challenge and change comes opportunity. One never knows where growth can happen. Maybe it happens in a class of 35.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2022 Contact reporter Lisa Phu at 523-2246 or lisa.phu@juneaempire.com.<\/p>\n Read more news:<\/strong><\/p>\n Sonar cam helps locate fisherman’s body in Auke Bay<\/a><\/p>\n As Juneau counts votes by hand, lawmakers in Anchorage complain<\/a><\/p>\n