We must as a nation be more unpredictable,\u201d Donald Trump said during the presidential campaign. \u201cWe have to be unpredictable!\u201d<\/p>\n
Mission accomplished. Last week, without warning, Trump announced what sounded like a U-turn in U.S. nuclear weapons policy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes,\u201d the president-elect wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n
Expand the nuclear arsenal? Ever since Ronald Reagan, presidents have worked to reduce the number of warheads that the United States and Russia aim at each other. Trump aides swung into action, gamely arguing that when the boss said \u201cexpand,\u201d he didn\u2019t mean build more nukes. But a day later, Trump said he was ready to do just that. If Russia continues to modernize its nuclear force, he told television host Mika Brzezinski, \u201cLet it be an arms race – because we will outmatch them at every pass.\u201d<\/p>\n
That wasn\u2019t the only abrupt foreign policy move by a president-elect who won\u2019t actually be on the job until Jan. 20.<\/p>\n
Earlier this month, after another Twitterstorm, Trump told a television interviewer that he might reverse the 44-year-old \u201cOne China\u201d policy under which the United States officially recognizes only one Chinese government (the one in Beijing).<\/p>\n
Two weeks ago, he nominated a new ambassador to Israel who wants to abandon the long-standing U.S. goal of a peace treaty with a demilitarized Palestinian state, the two-state solution.<\/p>\n
And during the campaign, he said he might not honor the U.S. treaty obligation to defend NATO allies if they don\u2019t spend enough on defense.<\/p>\n
Call it drive-by foreign policy, intended to take both adversaries and allies by surprise.<\/p>\n
In some cases, these disruptive outbursts may be barely-disguised opening gambits in negotiations – ploys for the \u201cbetter deals\u201d Trump promised he would strike if he won.<\/p>\n
For instance, Trump warned China that he\u2019d reconsider the policy toward Taiwan unless Beijing offers the U.S. better terms on trade.<\/p>\n
And Trump\u2019s new spokesman, Sean Spicer, argued that the nuclear comments were part of a master plan too.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s not going to be\u201d an arms race, Spicer said, \u201cbecause he\u2019s going to ensure that other countries get the message that he\u2019s not going to sit back and allow that. … They will come to their senses, and we will all be just fine.\u201d<\/p>\n
That benign interpretation doesn\u2019t sound so bad. And it was significant that Trump directed his warning at Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he has praised in the past as a strong leader. Perhaps Trump is just trying to keep the Kremlin on its toes?<\/p>\n
In a broader sense, former Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said last week, Trump\u2019s seemingly slapdash assertiveness toward Putin may be a good thing.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is some value in a disruptive approach,\u201d Gates told David Ignatius of the Washington Post. \u201cI worry that if you don\u2019t have pushback – let him know there are limits, and that the U.S. will react militarily, if necessary – then the chance of being taken advantage of is larger.\u201d Gates added, though, that he wished Trump hadn\u2019t used the word \u201cexpand\u201d in his nuclear tweet. \u201cModernize\u201d would have been better, he said. \u201cThere will be a rough break-in period,\u201d he predicted, dryly.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a problem.<\/p>\n
A drive-by foreign policy may unsettle potential adversaries like Russia and China – this is an unpredictable and dangerous man, our frenemies are supposed to conclude, let\u2019s be nice to him! But it unsettles real friends and potential allies too, who may draw a similar conclusion, and wonder how much confidence they should put in the United States.<\/p>\n
Twitter, moreover, doesn\u2019t provide much room for clarity. Trump\u2019s nuclear tweet was explained – and re-explained – by three different aides. Each of them provided a slightly different interpretation of what their boss really meant.<\/p>\n
More important, bluster and big demands may be great tactics in real estate negotiations – or even treaty negotiations. But they\u2019re no substitute for a well-thought-out policy – and it\u2019s not clear that Trump has one.<\/p>\n
Former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger said recently that any new president must think hard about his goals, and then communicate them to the world.<\/p>\n
\u201cA president has an inescapable responsibility to provide direction,\u201d Kissinger told The Atlantic. \u201cWhat are we trying to achieve? What are we trying to prevent? Why? To do that, he has to both analyze and reflect.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not clear that Trump has done much of that.<\/p>\n
Mr. President-elect, hardball tactics are fine. But you need a strategy first. Next time, please think – and explain – before you tweet.<\/p>\n
Doyle McManus is a columnist for the Los Angeles Times. Readers may send him email at doyle.mcmanus@latimes.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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