Even after listening to a generally optimistic presentation about the city\u2019s economic outlook, the majority of the 40-some people at the Juneau Chamber of Commerce luncheon Thursday said they expect to face some financial struggles in 2016.<\/p>\n
Brian Holst, the executive director of the Juneau Economic Development Council, allowed everyone present at the meeting to look, if only briefly, through his rose-tinted glasses during his hour-long presentation to the chamber. Though Holst doesn\u2019t conceal the fact that he may be a \u201csmidge optimistic,\u201d he told the audience that Juneau is not in a recession.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are not today in a recession, and we don\u2019t have any evidence that we are in recession,\u201d he said, then explaining that there is evidence to back up his view. Holst said that several important economic indicators \u2014 including rising wages and a low unemployment rate \u2014 corroborate this claim.<\/p>\n
During the past two years government wages increased, on average, by about .3 percent, according to data from the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. In that same time, private-sector wages increased on average by about 1.5 percent. The JEDC compiled these data sets in a brochure that it distributed Thursday.<\/p>\n
Holst also spoke briefly about how each industry in Juneau is doing. Between 2013 and 2014, the number of jobs in the fields of hospitality, arts and science and tech grew significantly. The number of state government jobs, which account for nearly a quarter of all of Juneau\u2019s jobs last year, remained relatively static. However, the number local and federal jobs, both among the city\u2019s higher-paying jobs, decreased.<\/p>\n
Rather than asking whether we are in a recession, Holst said that people should be asking if we are headed into one \u201cbecause that is certainly plausible.\u201d And according to most of the people in the room, we are. <\/p>\n
At one point during his presentation, Holst presented his audience with four statements about Juneau\u2019s economic outlook for the coming year. The statements, basically a Likert scale, ranged from the ultra-negative \u201cwe\u2019re doomed\u201d to the ultra-positive \u201cwe\u2019re better than ever.\u201d Using a text-message-based polling system, Holst polled the audience and found that 64 percent of respondents, most of whom hold high-ranking positions in businesses from the area, expect that Juneau will encounter some economic hardships in 2016. <\/p>\n
The doom-and-gloom response received 12 percent of the votes. The overly cheery response received 8 percent and 16 percent of respondents said they are not particularly worried headeing into next year.<\/p>\n
After the presentation, Holst told the Empire that he doesn\u2019t believe the city is headed into a recession but there is \u201cone big caveat.\u201d It depends on how the state Legislature handles its budget crisis, he said.<\/p>\n
In a community that is heavily dependent on state government jobs \u2014 which account for almost 30 percent of the city\u2019s total wages, according to the JEDC \u2014 the actions of the Legislature could have drastic impacts.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe could create a recession by having dramatic cuts in government spending,\u201d Holst said after his presentation. \u201cIt\u2019s a little bit out of our hands, but it is within the control of the Legislature, and I remain optimistic that our elected leaders can get us through this.\u201d<\/p>\n
Holst also spent a healthy portion of his presentation discussing migration in and out of Juneau. Between 2010 and 2011, the city experienced a net migration of 586 people. This means that there were 586 more people who came to the city than who left during that time period. Since then the net migration has been declining, and between 2013 and 2014 the city\u2019s population decreased by 227 people. <\/p>\n
Compared to the city\u2019s overall population of more than 32,000, this negative net migration is rather small and is not a cause for concern, according to Holst and JEDC program officer Eva Bornstein. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a miniscule departure,\u201d Borstein told the Empire after Holst\u2019s presentation. \u201cIt\u2019s not a mass exodus, and at the moment, it\u2019s not a worry number.\u201d<\/p>\n
During his presentation, Holst explained that Juneau\u2019s population shifts are determined by a sort of \u201cpush and pull.\u201d Juneau\u2019s high cost of living, for example, may \u201cpush\u201d residents to move to other cities. It\u2019s high quality of life, on the other hand, may \u201cpull\u201d people to it. The improving economy of the Lower 48 may explain last year\u2019s negative net migration, Holst said. <\/p>\n
\u2022 Contact reporter Sam DeGrave at 523-2279 or at sam.degrave@juneauempire.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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