While Alaskans hope for a rebound in oil prices, the state\u2019s top revenue economist warned the Alaska Senate Finance Committee that even if prices rebound, they may not stay high for long.<\/p>\n
John Tichotsky, chief economist for the Tax Division of the Alaska Department of Revenue, told legislators that global oil production outpaced demand by almost 2 million barrels per day in 2015, but 2 million barrels isn\u2019t what it used to be.<\/p>\n
Today, the world consumes almost 95 million barrels of oil per day, close to the highest consumption rate in world history. Even though 2 million barrels represents a big surplus on global markets, it\u2019s a relatively small margin \u2014 about 3 percent \u2014 of global demand.<\/p>\n
In the 1980s, when oil prices plunged, the difference between supply and demand was on the order of 20 to 30 percent, Tichotsky said.<\/p>\n
With margins tighter, small changes in the global picture \u2014 a field running low, a pipeline offline, regional conflict \u2014 can swing prices wildly.<\/p>\n
\u201cVolatility, I think, is the long term and short term name of the game,\u201d Tichotsky said.<\/p>\n
Tichotsky and his team have estimated that Alaska North Slope crude oil will average $56.24 in the next fiscal year, which runs from July 1 through June 30, 2017.<\/p>\n
If that happens, the state would earn $1.2 billion in oil revenue; once tax credits are added into the equation, that figure drops to about $600 million. Neither figure includes proposed budget reforms or tax credit reforms.<\/p>\n
During Tichotsky\u2019s presentation, Sen. Mike Dunleavy, R-Wasilla, asked if it was a wise approach for the state to expect oil prices to average more than $56 per barrel next year.<\/p>\n
\u201cI can\u2019t recall when we\u2019ve ever been right,\u201d he said of the state\u2019s revenue estimates. \u201cWhy not undershoot the projections and come out at least once with an underestimate?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat\u2019s realistic?\u201d responded Tichotsky, who says he lives in a \u201cprobabilistic world.\u201d<\/p>\n
Oil prices could be anywhere from $15 per barrel to $120 per barrel next year, and \u201cthese deterministic models are only good if you\u2019re sure of what\u2019s going to happen.\u201d<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re looking for an exact estimate, \u201cif you hold these deterministic views in your mind, you\u2019re going to be exactly wrong,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
While Alaskans hope for a rebound in oil prices, the state\u2019s top revenue economist warned the Alaska Senate Finance Committee that even if prices rebound, they may not stay high for long. John Tichotsky, chief economist for the Tax Division of the Alaska Department of Revenue, told legislators that global oil production outpaced demand by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":426,"featured_media":27116,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","wds_primary_category":4,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[230],"yst_prominent_words":[],"class_list":["post-27115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-state-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/426"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27115\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27115"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=27115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}