{"id":4365,"date":"2016-05-09T08:00:59","date_gmt":"2016-05-09T15:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spijue.wpengine.com\/news\/how-alaskas-population-might-change-by-2045\/"},"modified":"2016-05-09T08:00:59","modified_gmt":"2016-05-09T15:00:59","slug":"how-alaskas-population-might-change-by-2045","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/news\/how-alaskas-population-might-change-by-2045\/","title":{"rendered":"How Alaska’s population might change by 2045"},"content":{"rendered":"

ANCHORAGE \u2014<\/strong> Alaska\u2019s population will continue to climb over the next 30 years, inching closer to the 1 million mark, a new report says.<\/p>\n

The state\u2019s population is projected to increase by 162,200 from 2015 numbers to 899,825 people in 2045, according to a report released last week from the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.<\/p>\n

The population of Alaskans age 65 and older is the group expected to grow the fastest, and annual natural growth \u2014 births minus deaths \u2014 is expected to slow.<\/p>\n

Southeast Alaska is the only region in the state that is expected to lose population, and the Anchorage and Matanuska-Susitna regions are predicted to grow the fastest. The Mat-Su Borough is set to grow more than 80 percent between last year and 2045, the report said.<\/p>\n

Dan Robinson, director of research and analysis at the Labor Department and one of the people who worked on the report, said what will determine Alaska\u2019s population more than births and deaths is migration in and out of the state, \u201cand that\u2019s a big question right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report comes with the caveat that some events \u2014 such as the discovery of oil at Prudhoe Bay in 1968 and the construction of the pipeline \u2014 can\u2019t be foreseen and make migration unpredictable. That could throw off such projections that use hypothetical future trends.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou get, more than anything, a range of possibilities\u201d from the report, Robinson said.<\/p>\n

Worries are rising about Alaska\u2019s future as economists speculate about whether or not the state is already in a recession and lawmakers try to fix a $4 billion budget deficit. The Labor Department has also predicted that 2016 will bring the first annual jobs loss in the state since 2009.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve heard some people mention concern about big population losses,\u201d Robinson said. \u201cIt helps to put that in context.\u201d<\/p>\n

Significant population changes in Alaska in the past came with the construction and completion of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline, the oil boom and bust, wars and other economic swings.<\/p>\n

The last such population report came out in 2014, at which time the projection showed that Alaska\u2019s population would hit 925,042 in 2042.<\/p>\n

Projections in the report are based on historical population data and fertility, mortality and migration rates. It uses Alaska\u2019s population of 737,625 in July 2015 as the starting point.<\/p>\n

Two other scenarios show that, on the lower end, the state\u2019s population could actually dip to 642,697 in 2045 if there is a net migration rate of negative 1 percent per year. On the other hand, it could reach as high as 1,247,887 with an annual net migration rate of 1 percent.<\/p>\n

The middle-of-the-road scenario uses a net migration of 0 percent because in recent years, Alaska\u2019s net migration has \u201ctrended toward being neutral,\u201d said Eric Sandberg, a demographer at the Labor Department who also worked on the report.<\/p>\n

Projections show the population of Alaska Natives in the state, including those who report more than one race, will grow from 143,868 in 2015 to 184,561 in 2045.<\/p>\n

\u201cLike the state as a whole,\u201d the report said, \u201cthe Alaska Native population\u2019s growth is expected to slow as the population ages.\u201d<\/p>\n

The state\u2019s median age is expected to tick up from 34.5 in 2015 to 36.8 in 2045, the report said, and the male-to-female ratio will shift from 107.5 males per 100 females to 104.8 males per 100 females.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ANCHORAGE \u2014 Alaska\u2019s population will continue to climb over the next 30 years, inching closer to the 1 million mark, a new report says. The state\u2019s population is projected to increase by 162,200 from 2015 numbers to 899,825 people in 2045, according to a report released last week from the Alaska Department of Labor and … Continue reading How Alaska’s population might change by 2045<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","wds_primary_category":4,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[230],"yst_prominent_words":[],"class_list":["post-4365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-state-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/107"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4365"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4365\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4365"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=4365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}