{"id":44816,"date":"2019-03-18T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-03-18T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/news\/new-state-revenue-forecast-slightly-more-positive-for-2020\/"},"modified":"2019-03-18T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2019-03-18T21:00:00","slug":"new-state-revenue-forecast-slightly-more-positive-for-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/news\/new-state-revenue-forecast-slightly-more-positive-for-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"New state revenue forecast slightly more positive for 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

Now that the oil market has stabilized<\/a>, the revenue forecast for the state has changed slightly.<\/p>\n

The Department of Revenue (DOR) Commissioner Bruce Tangeman released the spring 2019 revenue forecast Friday, which includes a lower prediction for Fiscal Year 2019 and higher prediction for FY 2020 than the fall forecast.<\/p>\n

“When<\/a> the legislature passed the budget last <\/a>spring<\/a>, they were estimating $63 (a barrel) oil and projected about a $700 million deficit for the year,” Tangeman said at a Senate Finance meeting Monday morning. “We now see that the price of oil has been well about $63 (a barrel). … We are forecasting about $69 (a barrel).”<\/p>\n

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The spring forecast includes the department’s updated FY 2019 budget, FY 2020 budget, as well as long-term forecasts for oil price, oil production and state revenue. Not counting transfers from the Permanent Fund, the department is forecasting unrestricted revenue of $2.7 billion in FY 2019 and $2.3 billion in FY 2020, according to a press release from the DOR. Additionally, the Permanent Fund is expected to transfer $2.7 billion to the general fund in FY 2019 and $2.9 billion to the general fund in FY 2020. These amounts are available both for payment of Permanent Fund Dividends and for general government spending.<\/p>\n

However, Gov. Mike Dunleavy has proposed paying a larger PFD out to residents rather than using it for government spending like in previous years, which would trigger large cuts in government spending to balance the <\/a>budget<\/a>.<\/p>\n

FY19 unrestricted revenue forecast is reduced by about $89 million compared to the fall forecast, despite higher forecasted near-term oil prices, according to the DOR presentation<\/a>. The primary changes to FY19 forecast are:<\/p>\n