When the shaking stops, Alaska\u2019s seismologists have a goal: 10 minutes.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the time it should take for them to consult their instruments, run calculations, and determine the exact spot an earthquake happened. Ideally, it happens faster.<\/p>\n
Lives will be at stake. Emergency response is based on need. Where the worst shaking occurs, the worst damage will be.<\/p>\n
On Monday morning, when Southeast Alaska and the Yukon were rattled by a series of magnitude-6 earthquakes, the scientists at the Alaska Earthquake Center in Fairbanks didn\u2019t need 10 minutes to identify their epicenters.<\/p>\n
They needed 31.<\/p>\n
\u201cI hate talking about that number, because that reflects poorly on us,\u201d state seismologist Michael West said by phone on Monday. \u201cIt would\u2019ve been a hell of a lot faster in California.\u201d<\/p>\n
Since 2013, the budget of Alaska\u2019s earthquake watchdog has been slashed.<\/p>\n
Last summer, it could no longer afford to maintain its network of 150 seismic instruments spread across the state. The results have been worrying.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe suspension of most maintenance has begun to directly impact the performance of the network,\u201d West wrote in a letter to network users on March 16. \u201cAs of March 1, 2017, more than one quarter (27 percent) of the Alaska Regional Seismic Network is offline.\u201d<\/p>\n
Since 2013, the center has cut its staff from 20 to 14 people. It has cut travel and stopped buying new equipment. \u201cPerhaps most insidious, we have ceased hiring the graduate students and postdocs who are largely responsible for converting raw earthquake data into observations that reduce earthquake risk,\u201d West wrote in August.<\/p>\n
Worse may be coming.<\/p>\n
\u201cI won\u2019t lie. We are not that far here from stopping 24\/7 response,\u201d West said on Monday, a few hours after the Southeast earthquakes.<\/p>\n
In other words, if an earthquake happens in the middle of the night or on a weekend, the state may no longer have someone on duty to read the data. Response would be handled by a computer.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s a last-ditch effort, but we\u2019re not that far away,\u201d West said.<\/p>\n
Since 1987, the University of Alaska has been in charge of the network of scientific instruments that monitors Alaska\u2019s earthquakes. It\u2019s not a small challenge: Alaska has more earthquakes, and more large earthquakes, than any other place in the United States.<\/p>\n
Large earthquakes can be detected around the world, but precision and accuracy require proximity. It\u2019s the difference between having someone peer at an object through a telescope from a mile away, then having someone look at the same object with a magnifying glass a foot away.<\/p>\n
Peter Haeussler, a research geologist for the U.S. Geological Survey in Anchorage, said his agency relies on the state center, just as it relies on regional centers across the country.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe depend on them as the authoritative seismic network for a significant part of Alaska,\u201d he said. \u201cWithout that seismic network in place, we wouldn\u2019t know where those earthquakes occurred, what has happened.\u201d<\/p>\n
When the Legislature ordained the university to monitor earthquakes, it did so because the Alaska Department of Resources didn\u2019t have the funding anymore. In 1987, the state was enduring an oil-driven budget crunch, and it couldn\u2019t even afford to employ a state seismologist.<\/p>\n
The pattern is repeating.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo single agency is responsible. Rather, a perfect storm of reductions from many directions have coincided to compromise the shared funding model,\u201d West wrote in an August 2016 memo.<\/p>\n
Cuts in federal funding from the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (which monitors tsunamis) have hurt.<\/p>\n
The earthquake center had also sold its services as a contractor to organizations performing seismic studies. One of its biggest customers was the Susitna-Watana hydroelectric dam. When Gov. Bill Walker abandoned that program in 2015, he also abandoned funding for the earthquake center.<\/p>\n
The center has also seen its state support dwindle.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe operated for many years on $800,000 from the state of Alaska. We are currently figuring out how to work at something under $600,000,\u201d West said by phone.<\/p>\n
According to figures provided by Alesia Kruckenberg, director of the University of Alaska office of strategy, planning and budget, the earthquake center received $800,000 from the state in 2013. That has fallen to $684,000 in the current fiscal year. The projection for next year is $588,000. Those figures do not include cuts to university services the earthquake center shares, things like computer support or building maintenance.<\/p>\n
Compared with the size of the state\u2019s overall budget, the share granted to the earthquake center is small. It\u2019s nonetheless typical of what\u2019s happening to the university system as a whole.<\/p>\n
On July 1, 2013, the state was contributing $371 million in unrestricted support to the University of Alaska. That figure fell to $325 million by July 1, 2016.<\/p>\n
Gov. Bill Walker and the House of Representatives have proposed holding that figure flat. The Senate has proposed reducing it to $303 million, a figure almost 20 percent smaller in four years.<\/p>\n
On Saturday, Rep. David Guttenberg, D-Fairbanks, organized a Legislative hearing to address university budget cuts. More than four hours of public testimony followed, and the first person to speak was seismologist Helena Burrman of the earthquake center.<\/p>\n
\u201cAn earthquake occurring right now will take longer to detect, longer to assess, and we will do a poorer job,\u201d she said. \u201c(Our) budget impacts are measured not in years or decades, but in seconds.\u201d<\/p>\n
Speaking Tuesday, Guttenberg said the center\u2019s costs have risen even as it has taken cuts. He pointed to the bill for the broadband Internet connections needed to link the seismic sensors into a network. Those costs have risen, as have the costs of health care and other utilities.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat\u2019s more important, the person that reads the monitors or having the monitors in place?\u201d Guttenberg asked.<\/p>\n
If cuts continue, the earthquake center might not be able to afford either.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can\u2019t cut the legs out of one thing and have it still survive,\u201d Guttenberg said.<\/p>\n
In Fairbanks, West said Alaskans need to realize that budget cuts at the university don\u2019t just mean esoteric things disappear.<\/p>\n
\u201cMuch of what we call research has direct, measurable, economic and life-safety implications for the state,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Engineers depend on the measurements taken by the earthquake center to design bridges, roads, dams and other infrastructure. The information created by the center is available freely and influences building codes applied to the homes of Alaskans across the state.<\/p>\n
The data collected from Monday\u2019s quakes will have a tangible impact on the lives of Alaskans, West said.<\/p>\n
\u201cNext time we build a road there, next time we build a bridge on the Haines Highway, it\u2019s going to be built differently because of these earthquakes,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are in trouble. We\u2019re not in a good place here funding-wise.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u2022 Contact reporter James Brooks at james.k.brooks@juneauempire.com or call 419-7732.<\/b><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
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