{"id":6364,"date":"2016-04-29T08:01:25","date_gmt":"2016-04-29T15:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spijue.wpengine.com\/news\/abroad-trump-seen-as-a-danger\/"},"modified":"2016-04-29T08:01:25","modified_gmt":"2016-04-29T15:01:25","slug":"abroad-trump-seen-as-a-danger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/news\/abroad-trump-seen-as-a-danger\/","title":{"rendered":"Abroad, Trump seen as a danger"},"content":{"rendered":"

BRUSSELS<\/strong> \u2014 The world is fascinated by Donald Trump, just as blindsided as many Americans are about his rise and nearly at a loss to understand what he would do as president.<\/p>\n

Foreign-policy elites around the globe speak of Trump as a loose cannon, a \u201croller-coaster,\u201d \u201cunpredictable,\u201d \u201cdangerous\u201d and, perhaps above all, a \u201cmystery.\u201d<\/p>\n

But they can\u2019t avert their gaze from a Republican presidential race that turns on the billionaire\u2019s every word.<\/p>\n

\u201cDonald Trump makes me laugh a lot,\u201d said Felipe Algorta Brit, a member of the lower house of Uruguay\u2019s parliament. \u201cIf he wins the presidency, everybody will cry.\u201d<\/p>\n

The handwringing is not universal. Some analysts saw hints in Trump\u2019s foreign policy speech this week that he would take a reasoned approach in office, his out-there instincts curbed by the realities of government. Others think that under Trump, relations with China and Arabs might improve.<\/p>\n

And Trump is no outlier in contending the United States is too entangled abroad.<\/p>\n

If there is a dominant thread in Trump\u2019s speeches, said Peter Trubowitz at the London School of Economics and Political Science, it\u2019s that \u201cthe U.S. needs to scale back in its international commitments, and that those commitments have been too much of a one-way street, favoring America\u2019s allies.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Shooting from the hip<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cTrump is a mystery,\u201d said Yoaz Hendel, a former spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. \u201cTrump fires in all directions and makes lots of contradictory statements. This terminological roller coaster does not bode well for Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Russians are similarly wary, despite Trump\u2019s conviction that he and President Vladimir Putin could do some \u201cgreat deals\u201d together.<\/p>\n

Trump \u201cis unpredictable and may change his position 180 degrees,\u201d cautioned Sergei Rogov, a specialist on the U.S. at the Russian Academy of Science.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith Trump,\u201d said Danish Foreign Minister Kristian Jensen, \u201cit is really like drawing a ticket in the lottery.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Mideast, pro and con<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cI honestly believe he will take the world to a deplorable state of affairs,\u201d said Iraqi lawmaker Muwaffak al-Rubaie.<\/p>\n

Emad el-Din Hussein, editor in chief of Shrouk, a leading Cairo newspaper, said Trump would be the \u201cbest gift\u201d to the Islamic State because his presidency would strengthen violent anti-Western sentiment in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Yet some in the Arab world, noting Trump\u2019s suggestion that he would be more neutral in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than his predecessors, said he might be better placed to broker a peace deal.<\/p>\n

Mustafa Alani of the Gulf Research Center in Geneva said many politicians and elites in the Middle East are unhappy with President Barack Obama and \u201care ready to take a risk on Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Europe: Already \u2018mistrust\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s opposition to sweeping free trade deals could doom a proposed trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union.<\/p>\n

And Trump has said the \u201cobsolete\u201d NATO alliance must pay greater attention to terrorism and questioned whether it makes sense for Washington to keep guaranteeing the security of allies he called \u201cfreeloaders.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bruno Lete of the German Marshall Fund, a Brussels-based think-tank, agrees Europeans should do more to defend themselves. But he said Trump\u2019s talk about NATO, backbone of U.S. foreign and defense policy for almost 70 years, is damaging.<\/p>\n

\u201cMr. Trump\u2019s rhetoric has already created among the European partners a sense of mistrust and skepticism,\u201d Lete said. \u201cI am afraid Mr. Trump\u2019s first job would have to be to build trust on this side on the pond, and that\u2019s bad news for the trans-Atlantic partnership.\u201d<\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said it\u2019s unclear how Trump\u2019s \u201cmake America great again\u201d slogan fits with his wish to pull back on foreign commitments.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s positions \u201caren\u2019t entirely free of contradictions,\u201d Steinmeier said diplomatically. His agenda \u201cdoesn\u2019t seem to be entirely spelled out yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nicolas Bouchet, who researches Europe at the German Marshall Fund, was blunt: \u201cA President Trump would ignite anti-Americanism across Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Mexico and <\/strong><\/p>\n

Latin America<\/strong><\/p>\n

Former Mexican leaders have voiced rage at his proposals to build a border wall at Mexico\u2019s expense, rectify what he\u2019s called a rip off of U.S. jobs and crack down on immigrants he\u2019s branded criminals and rapists.<\/p>\n

Peter Schechter, who researches Latin America at the Atlantic Council, said a Trump presidency could dampen trade with all of Latin America.<\/p>\n

He said Trump\u2019s statement that he might tax or restrict remittances Mexican immigrants send home has raised alarm in other countries that rely on payments by U.S.-based workers, such as Honduras and El Salvador.<\/p>\n

\n

In the end, realpolitik?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump promises to defend U.S. economic interests much more aggressively \u2014 in particular by getting tough on China, which he accuses of unfair competition.<\/p>\n

But Chinese leaders expect him to moderate his positions if he assumes office, in part because of pressure from U.S. companies doing business in China, said Zhao Kejin, a specialist in international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing.<\/p>\n

Zhao said ties might improve, as they historically have done during Republican administrations back to Richard Nixon.<\/p>\n

\u201cChairman Mao (Zedong) once said he preferred to deal with the Republicans rather than the Democrats,\u201d Zhao said.<\/p>\n

Josef Braml of the German Council on Foreign Relations said Trump\u2019s foreign policy speech suggested he was seeking stability, interested in \u201cmaking \u2018deals\u2019 with autocrats and engaging in realpolitik.\u201d<\/p>\n

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key said \u201cI take all of the slogans that are made on the campaign trail with a grain of salt.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Mats Karlsson, director of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, contends harm has already been done.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s vow to walk away from the table if he\u2019s not getting his way would make agreements on conflicts, trade or the climate more difficult, he said, and \u201cwill make anyone on the other side of the table look for long-term solutions that are less dependent on the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump is weakening the U.S. position even as he campaigns,\u201d he said. \u201cEven as we wait for the outcome of the election, the prospects for a rules-based world order are eroding.\u201d<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

With contributions around the world from Associated Press writers Rhonda Shafner, Nick Perry, Jan Olsen, Eduard Castillo, Adam Schreck, Leonardo Haberkorn, Khetam Malkawi, James Heintz, Frank Jordans, Aron Heller, and Yu Bing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BRUSSELS \u2014 The world is fascinated by Donald Trump, just as blindsided as many Americans are about his rise and nearly at a loss to understand what he would do as president. Foreign-policy elites around the globe speak of Trump as a loose cannon, a \u201croller-coaster,\u201d \u201cunpredictable,\u201d \u201cdangerous\u201d and, perhaps above all, a \u201cmystery.\u201d But […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":6365,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","wds_primary_category":4,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[65],"yst_prominent_words":[],"class_list":["post-6364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-nation-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/107"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6364\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6364"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=6364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}