I predict there will be a lot of snowfall this season.<\/p>\n
I believe.<\/p>\n
Belief is a powerful thing. That, and the fact that the Gandalfian \u201cyou shall not pass\u201d gate has been closed on Basin Road.<\/p>\n
\u201cRoad closed, November \u2013 April. CBJ\u201d it says.<\/p>\n
Where does my belief stem from?<\/p>\n
This climate just feels like 2009 to me.<\/p>\n
That was the year I was hired to help out with photography at the Juneau Empire for a week.<\/p>\n
And then another week.<\/p>\n
And a month.<\/p>\n
The wildly wet weather of October, November and December was mixed with some pretty amazing snowfalls.<\/p>\n
It just feels like that again.<\/p>\n
Now, that may not be enough to convince you, so I made a few calls.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, Sir Ian Murray McKellen has a phone number I could not obtain.<\/p>\n
So I tried the next best thing to wizards.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are looking for above-normal temperatures,\u201d Juneau local Kimberly Vaughan said. \u201cThey are most likely expected.\u201d<\/p>\n
Vaughan is the Observation Program Leader for the National Weather Service in Juneau.<\/p>\n
OK, so the title is not exactly like Gandalf changing from \u201cthe Gray\u201d to \u201cthe White\u201d but, like I said, I was unable to get a hold of Mr. McKellen.<\/p>\n
They do, however, have a few similar powers:<\/p>\n
\u2022 They can read signs in nature and see and understand things that others can\u2019t;<\/p>\n
\u2022 They can make predictions using those powers;<\/p>\n
\u2022 They are both highly educated.<\/p>\n
Now, on the other hand, Gandalf can communicate with moths and eagles and unleash some god-like power when he needs to smite a Balrog.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe general outlook is that we have a better than normal chance to be warmer than normal,\u201d Vaughan said. \u201cIt is not that we are forecasting that we will get less snow and it is going to be warmer, but the signatures are showing that we have a better chance for it to be warmer than normal which then correlates to less snowfall. That is not to say that we couldn\u2019t get a lot of snow on a particular day or on several days. This is the seasonal outlook, opposed to a daily.\u201d<\/p>\n
As a sports editor studying weather maps, I see the early season predictions (October through December) show this warmth, and the second half of winter (January through March) are also appearing above normal on temperatures.<\/p>\n
And the precipitation amounts, which could fall as either rain or snow, are looking or have the potential to be, wetter than normal.<\/p>\n
The first half of winter has already shown that, and I have been resizing my skis to fit my Xtratufs.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe second half is looking like it could be equal chances,\u201d Vaughan said. \u201cMeaning there is no strong signature to say it looks good that it might be wetter or dryer.\u201d<\/p>\n
Now, I realize that if you don\u2019t speak any of the Middle Earth meteorologist dialects, this sounds confusing.<\/p>\n
It really isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n
There are more forces here than meet the eye.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is that El Ni\u00f1o thing,\u201d Vaughan said.<\/p>\n
It seems weather likes to churn around like a recipe in a crock pot, and El Ni\u00f1o years definitely have some seasoning ingredients to add.<\/p>\n
\u201cDynamical models and ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation)-based statistical models are in great agreement on the predicted temperature pattern\u2026\u201d to quote the local weather service\u2019s outlook.<\/p>\n
For the skier who does not speak the Elvish lingo, this means there is so much going on that there is just no one thing that you can look at and say how much snow will fall.<\/p>\n
A strong El Ni\u00f1o gives more potential for warmer weather.<\/p>\n
Such years were 1982, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009.<\/p>\n
However, many of those years, even though they were El Ni\u00f1o years, had a lot of variation to their patterns. For example \u201982 was very dry over Southeast and \u201997 was dry over most of western Alaska.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is not a scenario of if that happened then it is going to happen now,\u201d Vaughan said. \u201cThere is no direct correlation to say a potential for similarity.\u201d<\/p>\n
In 2009 I remember rain \u2026 and snow.<\/p>\n
Still not convinced?<\/p>\n
Well, I called another wizard, one with actual powers of making snow (take that, Gandalf).<\/p>\n
Eaglecrest Ski Area has very positive voice machine messages: \u201cThe 2015-16 winter season is on its way\u201d and \u201cThink snow.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI honestly think we are going to have a good season,\u201d said Jeffra Clough, Eaglecrest\u2019sdirector of sales\/marketing and snowsports school. \u201cWill it go down as being one of the best in history? I guess that will remain to be seen. Winter is definitely on the way. We are watching the snow line come down the mountain. Things feel different than they did last year. I have seen winters like this where the snow slowly creeps down and then we get a little into November and December and it just starts dumping and we have an amazing season. I have to be positive about it \u2026 last year is a distant memory. I think out of the years I have been here, it certainly acted different.\u201d<\/p>\n
Eaglecrest has magic even Gandalf has not shown proficiency in.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think we learned some things in that season,\u201d Clough said. \u201cI personally, and we as a team, knew how durable man-made snow was \u2026 and man-made snow is very durable. That is probably why areas in the rest of the country spend so much money on snowmaking. I think we are going to get snow. I am still looking forward to our scheduled opening on Dec. 5.\u201d<\/p>\n
That is the traditional target date for our local hill to open.<\/p>\n
Winter is definitely on the way, and when dealing with Winter Balrogs and other things that go bump in the flurries, it is rather interesting to note that Gandalf says \u201c\u2026 SHALL not pass\u2026\u201d in the movie, but in the book he bellows \u201cYou CANNOT pass\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n
As you can see, sometimes when the weather dictates that my skis remain docile or that my path is blocked, I read.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I predict there will be a lot of snowfall this season. I believe. Belief is a powerful thing. That, and the fact that the Gandalfian \u201cyou shall not pass\u201d gate has been closed on Basin Road. \u201cRoad closed, November \u2013 April. CBJ\u201d it says. Where does my belief stem from? This climate just feels like […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":8781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","wds_primary_category":6,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"yst_prominent_words":[],"class_list":["post-8780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/107"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8780\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8780"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juneauempire.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=8780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}