By pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), the White House is hoping, without any rational basis, for either a better agreement or a regime change in Iran leading to a more U.S.-friendly leadership. Neither is going to happen. A more likely result is yet another expensive war, draining our economy and killing our children. The White House has effectively told Iran, and all other nations that we are at odds with (North Korea and Syria, for starters) that they must build up their weapons stockpiles, including nuclear weapons if possible, to protect themselves from the U.S. because diplomacy is off the table. We have made the world a more dangerous place.
Iran would have to be not only stupid but suicidal not to try to protect itself. A North Korean general, when asked why his government was moving forward with nuclear weapons despite the great economic cost, replied that if Saddam Hussein or Slobodan Milosevic had had nuclear weapons they would still be in power. If Muammar Gaddafi had not given up Libya’s nuclear ambitions he would probably still be in power. Iran will likely pay any price to avoid their mistakes. We have taught Iran (and North Korea and any other country we disagree with) two lessons: first, have the means to defend yourselves (which in our times equates to nuclear weapons) and, second, don’t trust the U.S. to let you survive as an independent country without nuclear weapons.
We need to ask a basic question about Mr. Trump’s decision: are we safer with or without the JCPOA? The administration’s decision to renege on the agreement is not based on a desire to keep Iran from getting a nuclear bomb; if that were the case, it would make much more sense to stay committed to the JCPOA while negotiating to make it permanent. Both the International Atomic Energy Agency and U.S. intelligence community agree that Iran has been in full compliance. Armed conflict between U.S. forces and Iran and its proxies is going to become more likely as a result of this decision, and could escalate into a larger war faster than anyone expects. Every government that cooperated with the U.S. to secure the deal will remember how we simply threw away a major diplomatic achievement, and will be less inclined to cooperate the next time their help is needed. Mr. Trump’s decision makes the world less safe.
So if pulling out of the JCPOA doesn’t make the world safer, then who benefits? Iranian hard-liners for one, since it lets them claim vindication and accuse their domestic opponents of making the mistake of trusting us. The war hawks in the White House, eager to send someone else’s kids to war, are already having dreams about regime change and military-industrial profits. It won’t be long before we hear the usual drumbeat for military action against Iran.
If we, as a society, intend to survive for a few more decades, then the administration in the White House needs to start taking a broader strategic view of the world instead of viewing each issue like a real estate transaction, unconnected to the bigger picture. What we do in Iran is being watched by North Korea and will affect any future negotiations. Failing to keep peace with Iran means failing to keep peace everywhere, at great cost to us.
• Craig Wilson is the president of Veterans for Peace, Chapter 100.
